Availability Bias
Overestimating the likelihood of events that are easily recalled.
What It Is
Availability bias is the tendency to overestimate the probability of events that are more easily recalled or imagined. If something comes to mind easily—because it's recent, dramatic, or emotionally charged—we tend to think it's more common or likely than it actually is. This bias is heavily influenced by media coverage and personal experience.
Why It Matters
This bias distorts risk assessment and decision-making. People fear plane crashes more than car accidents, terrorism more than heart disease, and stranger danger more than familiar risks—all because dramatic events are more available in memory. Understanding this bias helps you make decisions based on actual probabilities rather than memorable examples.
How to Apply It
- 1
When assessing risk, look up actual statistics rather than relying on memory
- 2
Ask: Am I thinking this is common because I recently heard about it?
- 3
Consider what you're NOT hearing about (boring but common events)
- 4
Be especially skeptical after dramatic news events
- 5
Use base rates and data to counteract vivid examples
Example
After seeing news coverage of a shark attack, people avoid swimming in the ocean, even though you're more likely to be killed by a falling coconut. The dramatic, available image of a shark attack makes the risk feel much larger than it actually is, while the mundane reality of coconut-related deaths doesn't register.