Confirmation Bias
The tendency to search for information that confirms existing beliefs.
What It Is
Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information, or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position.
Why It Matters
This bias can lead to poor decision-making, as it prevents you from seeing the full picture. It's particularly dangerous in investing, hiring, medical diagnosis, and any field where objective analysis is crucial. Being aware of confirmation bias helps you actively seek out contradictory evidence and make more balanced decisions.
How to Apply It
- 1
Actively seek out information that contradicts your beliefs
- 2
Ask yourself "What would I need to see to prove myself wrong?"
- 3
Consult people who disagree with you and listen openly
- 4
Use pre-mortems: assume your decision failed and work backward to find why
- 5
Keep a decision journal to review your reasoning later
Example
An investor believes a stock will rise, so they only read positive news about the company and dismiss negative reports as biased or wrong. They interpret neutral information as positive and eventually lose money when the stock falls because they ignored warning signs.